Posted by: El Duffah | November 16, 2007

Entry into the Blogosphere

Well it’s time to make my first posting in this crazy electronic world so I think I’ll start by putting up the following conversation I had going with Goatboy via Facebook the last couple of days, which led to all of this. It was really the electronic analog of writing ideas down on bar napkins. Hopefully it will help illustrate the evolution of this quaint idea and give our readers a good sense of what we’re all about here at the 207 Prospectus. Years from now when we’ve become famous television personalities we’ll be able to reflect upon these humble beginnings in the midst of all the exotic drugs, groupie orgies, Ravi Shankar jam sessions, and general super stardom. All wishful thinking aside once my partner in crime gets up and running on this new fangled blog business there’s a remote chance that this might be at the very least mildly entertaining for people other than ourselves. So if you’re one of the 0 people who’ve visited this site so far be sure to check in on a regular basis for rumblings and grumblings on various topics primarily but not exclusively related to the New England sports scene. And now without further a do the landmark dialog in all its glory:

El Duffah wrote
at 12:58am yesterday

Free agency has begun and we have yet to resign Lowell, which I hope means that Theo has something big up his sleeve. Don’t get me wrong, I like Lowell just as much as the next overly nostalgic sox zealot but the thought of Miguel Cabrera hitting in the same lineup as manny and papi makes me painfully hard. On the other hand the thought of Theo doling out 350 million to $#%&face Rodriguez gives me temporary erectile dysfunction and threatens to destroy my will to live. Thoughts?

Goatboy wrote
at 8:39am yesterday

Lowell is our best option if he agrees to take a hometown discount of 15 mil/yr for 3 yrs. We won’t give him 4 because he’ll be useless in that last year as proved with the Pedro, Nomar, Damon et. al sagas.
ARod makes me sick and may force me to stop actively watching the Red Sox. Everything about signing him would be horrible.
Miggy is solid offensively but is slow and overweight so a huge defensive downgrade, plus he isn’t a free agent so we would have to trade for him. The Marlins want at least two of (Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lester) which to me is unacceptable.

If we don’t sign Lowell, and the above two things don’t happen the Sox will presumably: Move Youk to 3rd and get a 1B or sign some mediocre to bad 3B free agent and try to upgrade at the deadline or next offseason.

Grim if you ask me. I would personally love to package Lester, Crisp and someone like Brandon Moss or Jed Lowrie for Johan. THAT would be hot.
Do we have a timeframe on the Mitchell Report yet?

El Duffah wrote
at 1:14pm yesterday

Not sure about the mitchell report. Concerning Miggy consider this; at present he’s only 23 years old and I’m pretty sure we’d have him locked up for at least 3 or 4 more years before he entered free agency. At 23 he’s almost a first ballot hall of famer who’s been knocking 30+ out regularly at the dismal marlins stadium. You put him in fenway he hits 40 easy. That’s twice what you get from lowell not to mention he’s a more patient hitter who hits over 300 every year. Defensively, yeah he’s a downgrade, but what they’d do is move Youk back to third becuase that’s his natural position and bring miggy over to first where he’d be much less of a defensive liability. Combine that with the fact that he just publicly stated that he recognized that conditioning had been an issue for him and that he was making a commitment this offseason to get back into shape and he’s no longer an issue defensively. Personally I could give a shit what he does on defense becuase I think offense is more important anyway and what he brings to the plate there(pun intended) far surpasses what Lowell will ever accomplish.
Now, concerning the whole trading situation consider this: Even if we were forced to trade two of our top prospects what we get in return is a major league proven future hall of famer with an enormous bat. That’s way less uncertainty about performance than even the most major leagure ready rookies we have like lester. In addition we have a very good working relationship with the Marlins front office from previous major trades(see Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez for Beckett+Lowell). I mean the more people downplay him becuase of his percieved defensive liabilities the less we have to give for him. Like I said I love Lowell, he’s a standup guy etc.. but from a strictly business standpoint I think Cabrera would be the best way to go if the Marlins are willing to be reasonable.

El Duffah wrote
at 1:26pm yesterday

Oh yeah… did I mention that he’s only 24(i know I said 23 earlier)??????? That’s the age of a prospect but he has the bat of 30 year old allstar hitter at his peak.

Goatboy wrote
at 2:19pm yesterday

Cabrera will turn 25 in April, FYI. He would be an upgrade offensively over Lowell, that’s for sure. He consistently hits .315 or better with 30 homers, which would only increase hitting in the friendly confines of Fenway. Still, my main point of contention is that defensively MIke Lowell is annually the best 3B in the league and Miguel Cabrera is a far cry from that regardless of how many more sit-ups he does this winter. The runs prevented by Lowell’s defense help outweigh the runs gained be Miggy’s offense. Throw in the intangibles, like Lowell being an already comfortable and established member of the team, a great clubhouse guy with a veteran presence and I prefer him right now. Also Lowell only takes money to get on the team, whereas Cabrera will require significant player capital in return. I would rather throw money at an established and effective Lowell then send more future All-Stars (see Ramirez, Hanely) to Florida for Cabrera. How much better is the team with Lowell and Buchhlz, Lester and Ellsbury?

Infinitely better I say. The signing of Lowell allows us to allocate our player capital elsewhere (i.e persuing Santana or providing depth at SP which is always at a premium) as opposed to using it to get a 3B like Miggy and spending the season with Coco a full-time player and Julian Tavarez as an emergency starter.

Needless to say, we’ll see how it goes. I would prefer Lowell now and maybe a push for a guy like Santana with the blue-chippers.

El Duffah wrote
at 2:29pm yesterday

First of all let me comment on how sweet this real-time facebook dialouge is. I’d have to say Ellsbury is completely untouchable and I like where our starting pitching is at right now, although I realize to get miggy would probably involve losing either lester or bucholz. Assuming our outfield starters stay as is, which I think is a safe assumption, I would see coco as trade bait to procure some solid relief pitching since guys like Timlin are only getting older. I also just saw in the ESPN.com rumor mill something about miggy going to LA, which would be unfortunate in some sense but better than him going to the Yanks. All I have to say is that if LA ends up getting either A-Rod or Miggy they finally have an intimidating batting order and Vlad will probably finally see his power numbers return with some real protection in the 4th spot for once. I just hope that the sox don’t cave and give Lowell 4 years becuase that would definately not turn out for the better.

Goatboy wrote
at 2:33pm yesterday

The Sox won’t give a guaranteed fourth year. They set a value and stick to it, which is why injured versions of Pedro and Nomar are no longer playing for us. Lester and Coco would be a great start to a package in my mind, because we open up space for Jacoby and still keep out “ace” AAA arm at the ready if/when an injury pops up.
But yeah, I don’t want A-Rod, nor do I want the Yanks to get Miggy.
Real time facebooking for the win.

El Duffah wrote
at 2:38pm yesterday

Even though I’ve never cared about or followed basketball I find it intriguing that the celts are still unbeaten. Of course I’ve read Simmons take ad-nauseum but coming from a more experienced fan what is your take? Speaking of sports I don’t follow it turns out the Revolution made it to the mlscup final, which is this sunday. The year of Boston? I really need to graduate so I can move to the area because upstate new york is killing me as a sports fan.

Goatboy wrote
at 2:52pm yesterday

While not nearly as hardcore about the NBA as I am the NFL and MLB, the Celtics are a surprising 6-0 at this point I feel. Given that Doc Rivers is a miserable coach and we really only have like 6 players who have even remote skills/experience it’s impressive we are doing so well. I’ll be interested to see how we stack up with the teams out West. Pesonally I feel like the Celts should win the East this year, but are probably a year away from a legit title shot. Only time, and the avoidance of the injury bug, will tell.

El Duffah wrote
at 2:56pm yesterday

If I ever move to the Boston area I’m convinced we could become the greatest sports fans of all time. We definately have the upside.

Goatboy wrote
at 3:09pm yesterday

Yeah, all we need is the capital to invest in season tickets and jobs flexible enough to allow constant travel to sporting events.
I think the season ticket package of night games only for the Sox would be doable, but the more teams you add the tougher it gets.
Let’s work on this.

El Duffah wrote
at 3:17pm yesterday

Well we can certainly count out the Bruins at least. I don’t see myself ever being at a point in my life where I’m a big enough hockey fan to warrant going to more than one game a season just for the novelty of it. But definately we should look into sox season tickets and getting to more than one pats game. Also we should start our own blogsite where we sound off on various issues and people can post comments and shit. I mean I know it’s been done but I feel like we would bring our own quirky flavor to the table. Once the site becomes popular we start getting advertising in there to make a little cash money on the side to subsidize our season tickets. Ultimately ESPN page 2 picks us up and we supplant Simmons as the Boston sports gurus.

Goatboy wrote
at 12:22pm

Start thinking of names for our blog, i’ll totally write for that. I mean what else am I going to do? This is an excellent idea, sir.

El Duffah wrote
at 1:08pm

From baseball prospectus(2007 stats):

Miguel Cabrera: VORP: 71.4 OPS: .966 Range Factor/9 innings: 2.51 Zone Rating: 0.714 FRAR: 19 WARP1: 9.2

Mike Lowell: VORP: 46.5 OPS: .877 Range Factor/9 innings: 2.51 Zone Rating: 0.778 FRAR: 27 WARP1: 7.4

Even with Cabrera playing 3B at the same level that he did this year Mike Lowell’s better defense doesn’t make up for Cabrera’s offensive advantage. Also apparently the Yankees are interested in acquiring Lowell to play first and are actively talking with his agents. Given that the chance of Lowell accepting the 3 year deal between 35-45 million from us takes a big hit.

El Duffah wrote
at 1:32pm

Stats and Rants; The 207 Perspective

Having a hard time coming up with anything catchy.

Goatboy wrote
at 2:19pm

I enjoy “The 207 Perspective” but i think we can go catchier for the first part. good start.

also, thank you for spewing data at me, i had been waiting. I feel like Miggy should be option 1 if Lowell doesn’t resign (which seems more likely by the day). The only encouraging news I have is that he (Lowell) continues to say he wants to remain here and I feel like if we offeed him 15-16 million per for 3 years, he might stay. Plus he reminds me of a generic ad campaign father and I love the salt and pepper beard.

I was also thinking they could devise a 3 yr. guaranteed deal with a club option 4th year that automaticcaly vests given certain performance incentives tover the 3 years. (say for instance, # of games played, BA stuff like that). That might make him interested in leaving money on the table from the LA teams and the Braves to stay with the big dogs.

El Duffah wrote
at 2:56pm

I like the idea of the club option based on performance incentives but I think 15-16 million per year would be overpaying for him. 16 million per year would make him one of the top 10 highest payed players for yearly salary this year. I mean I like Lowell but he’s not worth more than Vlad Guerrero or David Ortiz on a yearly basis. Of course the same could be said for J.D. Drew but then again I never endorsed that signing either. Also of note I can’t decide who’s a bigger waste of money, Bartolo Colon at 16 mil/year with the angels or Giambi at 23 mil/year with the bombers.

El Duffah wrote
at 3:10pm

More data

Current salaries
Miguel Cabrera: 7.4 mil/year
Mike Lowell: 9 mil/year

That 7.4 mil for Cabrera is just for next year so I would assume he either has arbitration rights at the end of 2008 or he becomes a free agent.

That about wraps it up for now. As you can see we’re the greatest arm chair quarterbacks in all the land. I’ll leave you with a topical quote. If you can guess the source you’re probably as big a loser as I am:

A beginning is the time for taking the most delicate care that the balances are correct.”

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Responses

  1. You guys should check out the official red sox podcast. It offers a nice regular joe perspective on the sox, but throws in a lot of what your are discussing. It’s not actively creating episodes as it is the off season, but their archives are good.

    -Crossman

  2. you guys have a good blog site here. did you design it or is it just the blog standard format?


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