Comments on: 2008 Baseball Preview: National League West

By: Goatboy

Goatboy — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 17:35:44 +0000

Braun’s walk rate (6.4%) and K rate (24.8%) were worse than Ankiel’s in 2007 (7.5% walk rate, 23.8% K rate). However, if you look at their minor league numbers Braun actually posted a much better walk rate and K rate (9.6% and 22% in a similar number of AB’s).

Comparatively, Ankiel had a similar K rate to his minor league numbers and was actually walking a bit more than in his minor league days (7.5% 2007, 6.4% minors).

Thus, it stands to reason that Braun will adjust better in his first full major league season and trend towards his career minor league numbers, increasing his walks and decreasing his K’s. Conversely, while Ankiel certainly can mature as a hitter and get more familiar with MLB pitching, odds are his walk rate goes down and his K rate stays the same – making Braun the better player, especially given the higher HR rate.

I would also like to point out that while Braun BABIP of .367 is a bit high, especially compared to the league average, elite hitters like Manny, Jeter, Cabrera and Helton all have career average BABIP of .340-.360 and so it isn’t totally unrealistic to think Braun can replicate a strong BABIP in 2008.

Only Albert Pujols reached some of the HR plateaus faster than Braun, so the kid is in rare company. While he probably won’t hit .330 this year, a BA over .310 with 30+ HR would come as no shock to me at all. Ankiel on the other hand, probably won’t ever hit better than .270, although he should continue to have plenty of pop. Keep in mind as well that Braun is going to be 24 this year, while Ankiel will be 29.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:02:13 +0000

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By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 19:58:23 +0000

Also Ryan Braun’s BABIP last year was .367. Given that the unadjusted league average BABIP is .305 and that this statistic tends to vary wildly from year to year for each player it would stand to reason that his batting average will be somewhat lower this year than last.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 15:27:22 +0000

Dissapointed by the lack of any new postings in the last week. Don’t become like that El Duffah guy and get really lazy. Also, Rick Ankiel had a slightly better BB/K ratio last year than Ryan Braun while posting a slightly lower homerun rate. Just in case you were wondering.

By: Goatboy

Goatboy — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 00:31:12 +0000

The NL West is traditionally one of the weaker divisions in baseball, and so perennial almost every team could be in the race. With the addition of Haren and maturation of Drew and contributions from Upton and the strong core of the Rockies and their strong bullpen I don’t see them not going 1-2.

I could see the Dodgers and Padres flip-flopping but I really like the upside of the Dodgers lineup (Kemp, Ethier, Kuroda) and Clayton Kershaw in the wings, so I went with them.

Also, Trevor Hoffman has to be a bit of a concern at this stage being 40 years old and blowing a lot of critical saves by a lot, dating back to last season. We’ll see how it all plays out though.

By: xmanw

xmanw — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 03:18:55 +0000

I don’t know if I agree with your positioning of the Padres. I understand their flaws, but they seem like they have the potential to put something together this year. 4th just seems to low for them.