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	<title>Comments on: Fantasy Football Recap and Predictions</title>
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	<description>Your home for news and commentary on the Boston sports scene.</description>
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		<title>By: Goatboy</title>
		<link>http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-29</link>
		<dc:creator>Goatboy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jan 2008 01:42:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-29</guid>
		<description>There&#039;s the statistical analysis we&#039;ve been lacking around here Duffman. More of that, and on the main page please. 

I think we are going to have to agree to disagree here as I would most always prefer a RB to a QB in the first round, depending on where I am picking. If Welker AND Moss are back next year, Brady looks like a good first pick whom I would take over a RB most likely. Also, picking at the turn I would consider a QB followed by a RB as well. A lot of who you take where depends on where you are drafting, what the other people around you are doing and most importantly who you forsee being left later on and planning ahead your picks. 

Also, I don&#039;t see Justin Fargas, Kenny Watson, Najeh Davenport, Maurice Morris as spectacular waiver wire adds. They were good for a game, or a string of games, but not guys I would want to go to war with long term. Fargas is the most intriguing and were he the number one guy for a whole season I would really like him, as he preformed well this season before getting hurt.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s the statistical analysis we&#8217;ve been lacking around here Duffman. More of that, and on the main page please. </p>
<p>I think we are going to have to agree to disagree here as I would most always prefer a RB to a QB in the first round, depending on where I am picking. If Welker AND Moss are back next year, Brady looks like a good first pick whom I would take over a RB most likely. Also, picking at the turn I would consider a QB followed by a RB as well. A lot of who you take where depends on where you are drafting, what the other people around you are doing and most importantly who you forsee being left later on and planning ahead your picks. </p>
<p>Also, I don&#8217;t see Justin Fargas, Kenny Watson, Najeh Davenport, Maurice Morris as spectacular waiver wire adds. They were good for a game, or a string of games, but not guys I would want to go to war with long term. Fargas is the most intriguing and were he the number one guy for a whole season I would really like him, as he preformed well this season before getting hurt.</p>
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		<title>By: EL Duffah</title>
		<link>http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-27</link>
		<dc:creator>EL Duffah</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jan 2008 20:24:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-27</guid>
		<description>I would have to disagree that quarterbacks performances are more variable from year to year than runningbacks.  For instance, altough he didn&#039;t show up in the beginning of the year so much, Drew Brees was within 10 points of his total last year.  Hasselbeck was injured for some of last year and had a decent year in 05 to the tune of around 3500 yards and 24 TDs.  Also, Derek Anderson was the only unknown to come up big this year so I don&#039;t think you can rely on the waiver wire to get a decent QB.  With the exception of Marc Bulger and the obvious Michael Vick case I couldn&#039;t find one difference making quarterback who significantly declined this year.  Peyton Manning&#039;s &quot;Disappointing&quot; season was only 30 points shy of his previous year total and even Brett farve was only about 45 points better than last year.  So if you avoid drafting Donovan McNabb and any known dog fighters you essentially have around 300 points in the bank give or take unless you get really unlucky(ie. Marc Bulger).

Another point that stems from the Derek Anderson comment is that I think it&#039;s easier to get good runningbacks off the waiver wire.  This season you have a decent number of examples including Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Justin Fargas, Kenny Watson, Najeh Davenport, Maurice Morris to name a few.  Now granted that&#039;s a not a whole lot of names considering everyone has at least two spots to fill but that at least gives you hope of pulling someone off the wire.  On the other hand I think it would be foolish to think that you have a good chance of pulling a decent quarterback off the waiver wire.

Maybe this all means that the quarterback isn&#039;t necessarily an automatic first round pick because of the difficulty of filling out the runningback slots but I do think it gives a lot of credibility to drafting a decent quarterback by the second or third rounds every time. 

In related news it&#039;ll be interesting to see how the patriots receiving corps changes over the off season.  If Brady ends up having Randy Moss and Wes Welker again next year I think he&#039;s an easy #1 pick.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I would have to disagree that quarterbacks performances are more variable from year to year than runningbacks.  For instance, altough he didn&#8217;t show up in the beginning of the year so much, Drew Brees was within 10 points of his total last year.  Hasselbeck was injured for some of last year and had a decent year in 05 to the tune of around 3500 yards and 24 TDs.  Also, Derek Anderson was the only unknown to come up big this year so I don&#8217;t think you can rely on the waiver wire to get a decent QB.  With the exception of Marc Bulger and the obvious Michael Vick case I couldn&#8217;t find one difference making quarterback who significantly declined this year.  Peyton Manning&#8217;s &#8220;Disappointing&#8221; season was only 30 points shy of his previous year total and even Brett farve was only about 45 points better than last year.  So if you avoid drafting Donovan McNabb and any known dog fighters you essentially have around 300 points in the bank give or take unless you get really unlucky(ie. Marc Bulger).</p>
<p>Another point that stems from the Derek Anderson comment is that I think it&#8217;s easier to get good runningbacks off the waiver wire.  This season you have a decent number of examples including Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Justin Fargas, Kenny Watson, Najeh Davenport, Maurice Morris to name a few.  Now granted that&#8217;s a not a whole lot of names considering everyone has at least two spots to fill but that at least gives you hope of pulling someone off the wire.  On the other hand I think it would be foolish to think that you have a good chance of pulling a decent quarterback off the waiver wire.</p>
<p>Maybe this all means that the quarterback isn&#8217;t necessarily an automatic first round pick because of the difficulty of filling out the runningback slots but I do think it gives a lot of credibility to drafting a decent quarterback by the second or third rounds every time. </p>
<p>In related news it&#8217;ll be interesting to see how the patriots receiving corps changes over the off season.  If Brady ends up having Randy Moss and Wes Welker again next year I think he&#8217;s an easy #1 pick.</p>
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		<title>By: Goatboy</title>
		<link>http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-26</link>
		<dc:creator>Goatboy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jan 2008 19:12:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-26</guid>
		<description>My general feeling on this is this: While QB&#039;s generally have the most fantasy points each year you only get to play one QB and often times the QB&#039;s who occupy those spots vary some from year to year (for example Derek Anderson [undrafted this year] or Drew Brees or Matt Hasselbeck types) and you can often get a solid to great QB at a lower draft slot or waivers if you are lucky. I mean, look at Favre this year. 13th round or something. DEAL AND A HALF.

Running backs on the other hand, you can play up to three every week (if you play one in the flex spot) and I personally want the best three I can get. Thus, since there is only one starting back for each team, with some exceptions, and usually only a few random backups emerging as viable options during a season I am spending my early round picks on RB&#039;s. This will usually ensure that I can get two quality backs that should fuel my team in the first two picks, leaving me rounds 3-5 to get two strong wideouts and a QB if I desire. After round 5 you can start mixing it up a bit, taking wideouts with upside, backs in a platoon situation, defense, kicker what have you. 

I also recommend that as a handcuff to backs with injury histories (Clinton Portis this year for instance) you take the backup in a later round as insurance. Another good option in a later round if you are looking for a good pick to make is people like Michael Turner who are a backup, but have shown the ability to have great games. LT goes down and you could have a big money back on your hands, even if you didn&#039;t have LT to start with. 

Obviously, there are tons of viable strategies to drafting a FF team and I think our league proved it with the top three slots going to people with varying selection methods. This is just how I see it and what propelled me to 4 consecutive top 3 finishes in my school league (3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My general feeling on this is this: While QB&#8217;s generally have the most fantasy points each year you only get to play one QB and often times the QB&#8217;s who occupy those spots vary some from year to year (for example Derek Anderson [undrafted this year] or Drew Brees or Matt Hasselbeck types) and you can often get a solid to great QB at a lower draft slot or waivers if you are lucky. I mean, look at Favre this year. 13th round or something. DEAL AND A HALF.</p>
<p>Running backs on the other hand, you can play up to three every week (if you play one in the flex spot) and I personally want the best three I can get. Thus, since there is only one starting back for each team, with some exceptions, and usually only a few random backups emerging as viable options during a season I am spending my early round picks on RB&#8217;s. This will usually ensure that I can get two quality backs that should fuel my team in the first two picks, leaving me rounds 3-5 to get two strong wideouts and a QB if I desire. After round 5 you can start mixing it up a bit, taking wideouts with upside, backs in a platoon situation, defense, kicker what have you. </p>
<p>I also recommend that as a handcuff to backs with injury histories (Clinton Portis this year for instance) you take the backup in a later round as insurance. Another good option in a later round if you are looking for a good pick to make is people like Michael Turner who are a backup, but have shown the ability to have great games. LT goes down and you could have a big money back on your hands, even if you didn&#8217;t have LT to start with. </p>
<p>Obviously, there are tons of viable strategies to drafting a FF team and I think our league proved it with the top three slots going to people with varying selection methods. This is just how I see it and what propelled me to 4 consecutive top 3 finishes in my school league (3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st).</p>
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		<title>By: EL Duffah</title>
		<link>http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-25</link>
		<dc:creator>EL Duffah</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jan 2008 17:32:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-25</guid>
		<description>Quarterbacks went 1-9 in fantasy scoring this year and had 9 in the top 12 last year.  This begs the question: why don&#039;t people as a general rule not draft quarterbacks in the first round?  The &quot;Draft Runningbacks First&quot; mantra makes even less sense when you consider that they&#039;re more likely to get injured and be a total bust than a quarterback.  Any thoughts?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Quarterbacks went 1-9 in fantasy scoring this year and had 9 in the top 12 last year.  This begs the question: why don&#8217;t people as a general rule not draft quarterbacks in the first round?  The &#8220;Draft Runningbacks First&#8221; mantra makes even less sense when you consider that they&#8217;re more likely to get injured and be a total bust than a quarterback.  Any thoughts?</p>
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		<title>By: Goatboy</title>
		<link>http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-24</link>
		<dc:creator>Goatboy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Jan 2008 17:20:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-24</guid>
		<description>I thought about including your pickup of Grant as well, but ultimately decided against it because you dropped Chester Taylor to pick him up. The other moves listed are the dropping of an injured or unproductive player for someone who made a huge impact. While Grant was hugely productive (again so despite two early fumbles in the divisional round) Taylor was also a pretty productive back, especially down the stretch as Adrian Peterson got hurt and he reeled of a couple of huge games and probably should have been starting over numerous other backs on other teams. 

Kudos to you for winning the GB backfield sweepstakes, and he certainly helped your team, but based on who he was swapped for it wasn&#039;t as big of a pickup in my opinion.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I thought about including your pickup of Grant as well, but ultimately decided against it because you dropped Chester Taylor to pick him up. The other moves listed are the dropping of an injured or unproductive player for someone who made a huge impact. While Grant was hugely productive (again so despite two early fumbles in the divisional round) Taylor was also a pretty productive back, especially down the stretch as Adrian Peterson got hurt and he reeled of a couple of huge games and probably should have been starting over numerous other backs on other teams. </p>
<p>Kudos to you for winning the GB backfield sweepstakes, and he certainly helped your team, but based on who he was swapped for it wasn&#8217;t as big of a pickup in my opinion.</p>
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		<title>By: xmanw</title>
		<link>http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-23</link>
		<dc:creator>xmanw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jan 2008 20:55:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-23</guid>
		<description>Nothing on Ryan Grant? Grant was up their with Favre as one of the best pickups I pulled off during the season. The one-two of double points on Favre to Grant carried me most of the season.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nothing on Ryan Grant? Grant was up their with Favre as one of the best pickups I pulled off during the season. The one-two of double points on Favre to Grant carried me most of the season.</p>
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		<title>By: Goatboy</title>
		<link>http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-22</link>
		<dc:creator>Goatboy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jan 2008 18:57:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://207prospectus.wordpress.com/2008/01/10/fantasy-football-recap-and-predictions/#comment-22</guid>
		<description>Clearly your strategy worked to some degree, seeing as you ended up finishing third and you beat me. You ended up getting Peyton, Wayne, Fred Taylor and Tony Gonzalez out of that draft which is great and you made some nice free agent moves to fill-in the holes created by auto-drafting. I didn&#039;t know you were auto-ing until just now, so even more kudos to you for overcoming the handicaps inherent in auto-drafting.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Clearly your strategy worked to some degree, seeing as you ended up finishing third and you beat me. You ended up getting Peyton, Wayne, Fred Taylor and Tony Gonzalez out of that draft which is great and you made some nice free agent moves to fill-in the holes created by auto-drafting. I didn&#8217;t know you were auto-ing until just now, so even more kudos to you for overcoming the handicaps inherent in auto-drafting.</p>
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